War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".