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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent strugglers improving together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still