Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
